MARKETS

Xstrata forecast to lose battle, keep fighting war

TWO days before Xstrata's bid for Resource Pacific expires Macquarie Research has predicted that,...

Christine Feary
Xstrata forecast to lose battle, keep fighting war

This forecast, released yesterday, follows a boardroom interview on Monday with Resource Pacific chief executive Paul Jury, in which he again encouraged shareholders to reject Xstrata's "inadequate" bid.

"We commissioned an independent valuation on the company, and the independent expert has valued the company at $3.56 to $4.09 a share," Jury said.

"A combination of factors have continued to maintain the fact that the bid by Xstrata is inadequate relative to the value that the company offers its shareholders at the moment."

In its forecast, Macquarie offered its own, slightly more modest valuation of Resource Pacific. Macquarie's risk-adjusted valuation placed the company at $3.19 per share, still more than Xstrata's bid.

However, it said that this figure would increase to $3.45 if semi-soft coal prices of $US120 per tonne and thermal coal prices of $US100/t were assumed.

One thing the two companies do agree upon is that rising coal prices will have a significant positive impact on Resource Pacific.

Macquarie predicted that for every $US5 change in the price of semi-soft coal in the 2008 financial year, there will be a 23% increase in Resource Pacific's earnings.

"The company on a stand-alone basis is certainly enhanced by these record coal prices and will generate significant revenue going forward," Jury said.

"At this stage of the game we've advised shareholders that it's really not the time to exit the coal sector.

"If Xstrata would like to talk to the company we're very happy to open a dialogue with them in relation to any discussions associated with an acquisition; however, at this point in time the $2.85 bid by them is certainly seen to be inadequate."

TOPICS:

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining Monthly Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining Monthly Intelligence team.

editions

ESG Mining Company Index: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The ESG Mining Company Index report provides an in-depth evaluation of ESG performance of 61 of the world's largest mining companies. Using a robust framework, it assesses each company across 9 meticulously weighted indicators within 6 essential pillars.

editions

Mining Magazine Intelligence Exploration Report 2024 (feat. Opaxe data)

A comprehensive review of exploration trends and technologies, highlighting the best intercepts and discoveries and the latest initial resource estimates.

editions

Mining Magazine Intelligence Future Fleets Report 2024

The report paints a picture of the equipment landscape and includes detailed profiles of mines that are employing these fleets

editions

Mining Magazine Intelligence Digitalisation Report 2023

An in-depth review of operations that use digitalisation technology to drive improvements across all areas of mining production