Much of the rise it attributed at an expected 4% year-on-year rise in economic growth, much of which is expected to be in the manufacturing sector and in regions of the country that are more dependent on coal-based electricity.

The projected 2004 production total would be 3.5% higher than 2003, and second only to the record 1.127 billion tons produced in 2001.

NMA forecasted production in the east would begin to recover from the 2003 downturn, due to an increase in the demand for export coal and for coal delivered to utilities generally served by eastern coal fields.

Production in the West “will grow at a faster rate than has been experienced in the past two years, again due to an increase in demand for coal for the generation of electricity,” NMA said.

NMA went on to predict increased coal usage and exports. “The difference between demand for coal use and coal production will be met through a further drawdown in stockpiles and with approximately 24 million tons of imported coal,” it said.

For the first time since 1996, exports of U.S. coal are expected to increase. Shipments of both metallurgical and steam coal to Europe are expected to be higher in 2004, due in part to the weaker dollar, which makes U.S. exports less expensive on the international market.

Much of this growth is likely to be in the manufacturing sector and in regions of the country that are more dependent on coal-based electricity.

Electricity demand itself is expected to increase by 2.5 percent in 2004, versus a relatively weak 1% increase in 2003, NMA said.