The $2.96 per share Farallon paid was fair value for the emerging coal mining group, despite claims by the Tinkler group that was worth much more, and Whitehaven was carrying short-term debt leaving it vulnerable, according to Morningstar research.
“China Shenhua owns assets in New South Wales and generates annual profits of around $US8 billion,” it said.
“Whitehaven is well funded with $800 million in undrawn bank facilities and only $450 million required to complete the Maules Creek mine.
“But the bank facility only has 3.5 years to mature, leaving little room for error.”
Shenhua would be an obvious player for Whitehaven because its Watermark project is nearby in the NSW Liverpool Plains.
The departure of well-respected chief executive Tony Haggarty could signal a weakness in terms of mine development experience, according to Morningstar. This added another layer of risk that the company would not deliver Maules Creek on budget.
“If Maules Creek proceeds to plan saleable production could reach 17 billion tonnes a year and revenue could be around $2 billion,” Morningstar states.
The company must therefore meet a 10% profit margin to reach fair value at its current share price.
Former major shareholder Nathan Tinkler exited from the Australian coal industry this week, with his creditors forcing him to sell his 19.9% stake in Whitehaven for $600 million.
Farallon Capital Management had purchased the other 9.91% of the company for $2.96 per share. It also agreed to purchase an additional 1.63% from ASM Equities Fund making it Whitehaven’s new largest shareholder.
The Tinkler Group said the sale of the Whitehaven shares did not reflect the inherent value of the company.
“While we are happy with the price we have received, being a 40 per cent premium to the current market price and a recent high for the company, we feel strongly that this still significantly undervalues the company's underlying asset base,” the statement read.
“Many will be aware of the emotional attachment that Mr Tinkler has to the assets of the company – specifically Maules Creek – and that selling this stake was a difficult decision.
“However we believe that no longer being a substantial shareholder of Whitehaven will benefit all existing shareholders.”
Whitehaven's asset base, consisting of low strip ratio, high yield and premium coal quality coal, provides for a strong future, according to the Tinkler Group statement.
Foster Stockbroking described the sell as a major positive for Whitehaven.
“The removal of the Tinkler shares removes a major overhang and allows the company – and investors – to focus more on operations," Foster said.
“While current thermal coal prices remain depressed, the company is benefiting from the fall in the Australian dollar.
“The development of Maules Creek and ramp up of Narrabri should lower WHC’s unit costs, as well as increase its coking coal exposure.”