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Dryblower wonders why Friedland chose to make the same mistake as Cutifani

WHEN you're sitting on a fortune estimated at $US1.8 billion ($A1.7 billion) and rank as the worl...

Tim Treadgold
Dryblower wonders why Friedland chose to make the same mistake as Cutifani

In fact, what earned Friedland a headline after his keynote address at the Mines and Money conference in Hong Kong last week was more than wrong, it was repetition. And it was repetition that caused the man with the original thought a degree of embarrassment.

What Friedland said in Hong Kong was: “It’s much better to be mining in the Congo or South Africa than try to be mining in Canada or Australia”.

Colourful personal embellishments on that general thesis were to follow.

Almost three years ago, another mining industry leader made much the same point when he said: “Sovereign risk in Australia is higher than South Africa”

The speaker back in 2010 was Mark Cutifani, then serving as chief executive of AngloGold Ashanti.

He was an angry man over the Australian government’s ham-fisted attempt to levy a super tax on all forms of mining, only to trigger the mother of all political storms that continues to this day and is a factor in the crisis destabilising the government led by Julia Gillard.

Back when Cutifani lashed out over Australia’s rising risk profile, Dryblower pointed out that it was quite wrong to mistake higher taxes for sovereign risk. One is a cost of doing business and you don’t have to pay it if you opt to not do business in that country. The other is expropriation of ownership, or a combination of civil or military unrest that destroys your asset.

Over time, Cutifani learnt the difference, mainly when he was promoted from head of the former gold division of Anglo American to chief executive of Anglo American itself, a company dogged by genuine sovereign risk issues such as the occasional massacre at its platinum mines, persistent speculation of South Africa nationalising all mineral assets, and a strike last week at the company’s South African coal mines, a sign that unrest in that country’s mining industry is spreading.

In time, Friedland will also learn his lesson about making headline-grabbing comments that do not stand up to closer scrutiny, such as his comparison with Congo and South Africa with Canada and Australia, and his use of a “rubber knife” analogy – “it looks scary, but it isn’t”

Why Friedland would say such a thing is almost as interesting as what he said and perhaps a reflection on his lack of recent success in Canada and Australia, where business conditions are tougher, but for good reason.

His principal Australian investment is in Ivanhoe Australia, a company developing copper, gold, molybdenum and rhenium assets in Queensland. It is not without its challenges, such as a sharp fall in its share price.

Perhaps Ivanhoe’s price decline in recent years, combined with a revolving door on the chief executive’s office, has made Friedland a little cranky and he wants to take out his frustration on everyone in Australia. This is understandable when considering Ivanhoe’s price fall – from about $A3.45 two years ago to recent sales at 30c, an eye-watering drop of 91%.

No one with a stake in Ivanhoe is happy with that fall, least of all the institutional investors who took up their entitlement in a three-for-10 share issue just four months ago at 48c a share to now be looking at an 18c (37.5%) fall in the value of their investment.

Retail investors were more circumspect in considering the 48c offer price with a big shortfall in subscriptions, which saw just 1.7 million new shares issued to retail investors, leaving that component of the offer short by about $4 million.

Whether it’s commodity prices, a lack of retail investor support, or a genuine dislike for government in Canada and Australia, the real point from Dryblower is that it is simply not correct to compare jurisdictions with strong laws and civil society with one-party states where following the rule of law is an option – which is the situation in Congo and sadly, South Africa.

As for the personal abuse directed at Australia’s appalling Prime Minister (“do you trust the redhead?”) and the disgraceful language from a business leader (“this constant w***ing about”) . . . that is something you expect to hear in a pub late on a Saturday night, not from a business leader in front of 3000 delegates.

Just as Dryblower predicted, accurately, that Cutifani would come to regret his comparison between South Africa and Australia, so too will Friedland regret putting his faith in Congo and other African countries.

But his $1.8 billion nest egg will provide some comfort when the troubles hit, which they will.

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