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Miners, banks and the Canberra soap opera

AUSSIE rock kickers are increasingly losing the race to attract new investors – you can bank on that. And the bizarre soap opera being played out in Canberra is hardly helping mining’s cause at a time of rising headwinds. <i><b>The Metal Detective</i>, by Stephen Bell</b>

Stephen Bell
Miners, banks and the Canberra soap opera

It is well known that punters have flocked to high-yielding stocks in recent times, preferring steady dividends over riskier bets on cost-challenged mine operators.

But the Metal Detective had not realised how far miners had been pushed into second-class territory.

A chart published by Deutsche Bank leaves no doubt that the party is well and truly over, with miners now cleaning up the mess and sacking the hired help.

Resources’ share of the ASX 200’s market cap has plunged to a six-year low, DB says, whereas banks have rocketed to a 10-year high – with the divergence accelerating in the past few months.

Resources companies now account for roughly 22% of the ASX 200, versus 36% at the peak of the boom in early 2008.

And most of the sector’s market value is taken up by the big four of BHP Billiton, Woodside, Rio Tinto and Newcrest Mining.

Fortescue Metals Group is 23rd on the list of Australia’s top 150 companies with a value of $A12.2 billion.

The next nearest thing to a home-grown Aussie mining champion is Iluka Resources at number 62.

The dearth of mining specialists in our top corporations is a reminder of how tough it is to make dough out of digging rocks, unless you are a multinational in the Pilbara with lowest quartile production costs and captive infrastructure.

This is particularly so when you are a small outfit faced with rising costs, lower prices and a distracted federal government obsessed with taxing the industry, not encouraging it.

Investors are betting things will get worse, with the likes of coal, iron ore, gold and copper all expected to suffer price declines in the next few years.

At least smaller miners may finally have a chance to get decent hired help as the heat comes out of the construction binge.

Even quality contractors such as Monadelphous, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the recent boom, is feeling the heat since warning of tougher times ahead at its recent profit announcement.

Investment bank Moelis & Company initiated coverage of Monadelphous with a “Sell” recommendation, saying the group’s high earnings are at risk as mining clients continue to put the squeeze on margins.

Out in the trenches, meanwhile, Perth-based Altona Mining says service companies are becoming much less choosy.

When the junior was doing a feasibility study on its $350 million Roseby copper project in Queensland 12-18 months ago, it asked contractors to quote an estimate for mining the deposit.

“We got one response,” said managing director Alistair Cowden.

“Now we get mining contractors ringing us – the market has changed quite dramatically,” he said at a luncheon.

Altona, which is now looking to sell all or part of Roseby rather than trying to raise project finance, compared its experiences in Australia with Finland, where it recently started commercial production at the Outokumpu copper and gold mine.

Labour costs in the Scandinavian country are well below Australian rates, Cowden said.

“Unskilled labour would be 35,000 euros ($A43,700) or less a year, and you don’t have to pay fly-in/fly-out costs,” Cowden said.

Altona avoided any major stuff-ups in the commissioning of its mine, partly due to the reliability of the local services sector.

“You let a contract to a Finn for 2 million euros or something, and ‘do this task by this date’, and they do it – there is never an over-run.”

“Hopefully our industry will head back towards that as we’re through this peak,” he said.

Cowden’s views on Finland are echoed by the Fraser Institute’s most recent annual mining survey, published a few weeks ago.

It ranked Finland as the world’s top nation in terms of pro-investment policies.

The other top 10-ranked jurisdictions were Sweden, Alberta, New Brunswick, Wyoming, Ireland, Nevada, Yukon, Utah and Norway.

Finland and neighbouring Sweden have been in the top 10 for the past four and three years, respectively.

No sign of any Australia territory or state pushing into the upper echelons with WA, Australia’s top-ranked jurisdiction sliding to 15th place in the survey.

These results aren’t really surprising, given that Australia’s dysfunctional Labor Government continues to pander to the union movement and marginal electorates on the east coast.

Big miners are the class enemy, as are foreign 457 workers supposedly jumping the queue.

Making life easier for Australia’s unloved mining sector seems like a bridge too far for this particular government.

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