MARKETS

The myth of the Chinese slowdown

RELYING just on the headline economic indicators coming out of China, it is easy to believe that ...

Staff Reporter
The myth of the Chinese slowdown

Admittedly, the most recent gross domestic product figures for the 2013 first quarter, showing an unexpected slowing down of the economy, came as a surprise.

The figure showed a decline of 0.2% from the previous quarter with GDP growth at 7.7%.

The GDP data from China – the world’s second-largest oil consumer – may have shocked consensus expectations of 8% growth but analysts say the market response could have been a bit overdone.

The data spooked the market and was followed by massive sell-offs in commodities, with oil settling well below the $US90 a barrel mark.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $87.86 before recovering and closing at $88.71/bbl.

Perhaps the more significant data pointing to potential slowdown in oil demand in China are the March demand figures, which declined by two percentage points to 9.77 million barrels per day, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Analysts say the dip in oil demand figures is only a temporary decline – that the falling demand in March compared with the previous month isn’t essentially a negative lead.

Growth itself has moderated to a 2% uptick in March from 4% in February.

Indeed, Chinese government figures show a steady piling up of gasoline and diesel stocks in the first three months of the year, much in line with the previous year and in keeping with the broader economic trend.

However, the decline in demand was not too stark, Barclays analysts say.

“Chinese oil demand goes through a soft patch over March and April, weighed down by refinery maintenance and ample inventories during this period,” Barclays notes.

“We expect Chinese crude demand to pick up towards the tail end of the second quarter and early third quarter once the turnaround season is over.”

The bank expects China’s oil demand to grow 5% this year to 10.1MMbpd on the back of moderate but steady economic recovery and refinery expansions.

Broadly, China might have told the world it was perhaps the end of high speed growth as it tried to balance the imperatives of economic growth with environmental concerns.

Already there have been serious concerns raised over emissions issues in China.

In a recent report, the Asian Development Bank said while Asia was likely to enjoy the fastest GDP growth, it could lag behind in curbing emissions.

To that end, China is moving towards reducing the use of coal and oil for generating electricity by planning the construction of 28 nuclear plants.

It also plans to develop its domestic shale potential.

However, until nuclear plants and shale gas are brought online, China’s reliance on oil and gas imports will remain.

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