In the latest Resources and Energy Quarterly, BREE said significant growth in export volumes would deliver the returns, despite softening commodity prices.
“In Australia, the resources boom is transitioning from the investment phase to the production phase as the large number of projects developed over the past few years start operation,” BREE executive director Bruce Wilson said.
“This is expected to result in increased production and exports for a number of commodities.
“Lower prices for most commodities over the past year have put greater pressure on the profitability and competitiveness of some Australian producers. However, the Australian industry is expected to remain fairly resilient over the medium term.”
In the short-term, Wilson said higher volumes of iron ore and coal would be the key drivers of growth, with natural gas exports also rising to become one of the country’s principal exports.
Iron ore exports are projected to grow at an average 8.2% a year to total 847 million tonnes in 2018–19, more than 300 million tonnes higher than in 2012-13.
Thermal coal and metallurgical coal exports are projected to grow at 5.1% and 3.8% a year to total 244Mt and 181Mt, respectively, in 2018–19.
Minister for Industry Ian Macfarlane said the report showed how central the resources sector was to the economy.
“The BREE figures reinforce that the resources sector will continue to be essential in delivering greater prosperity for Australia through export earnings, job creation, increased productivity and global competitiveness,” he said.
“This government is firmly behind our miners and our mining industry. We will continue to work to deliver on our policies to get rid of the tax burden on the sector and scrap excessive red tape.”
Despite the broad increases BREE cut its immediate forecast on iron ore exports for 2013-14.
In its previous report BREE said iron ore exports were set to rise 23% to 650Mt for the financial year, but in the latest update it lowered the figure to 631Mt.
No reason was given for the downgrade, but adverse weather through the Pilbara’s summer months has contributed to some delays, including a temporary closure at Port Hedland.
