Known as the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan which was approved last month, the reform bans coal imports of more than 16% ash and 1% sulphur for its three most populated regions.
Woodmac has previously estimated that this could impact 39 million tonnes of 17% ash or higher Australian coal exports to China.
But it also expects China’s coal demand to still grow even if coal-fired power is increasingly substituted for other forms of power generation.
“Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China,” the consultancy and research group said.
“In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then.”
Woodmac northeast Asia mining and metals manager Rohan Kendall said the APPCAPP measures were to encourage the use of cleaner coal and arte not aimed at penalising the commodity.
“The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes,” he said.
“With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection – supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports.”
However, China’s separate move to revive a 6% import tax on thermal coal and a 3% import tax on anthracite and coking coal imports, which became effective from mid-October, has been tipped as a “game-over for Australian coal” by one analyst.
