Glencore’s decision to close all of its Australian coal mines for three weeks from mid-December could be the circuit-breaker needed in an industry drowning in a sea of surplus production.

While it is the action of just one company, there is a powerful message being sent by Glencore to the rest of the coal industry, and while other big producers have yet to say whether they’ll cut output the pressure is on them to do something to correct a seriously unbalanced market.

The world’s oil and gas industry is in a similar position to coal, suffering from chronic over-production which is killing the price, causing all sorts of knock-on effects, including the takeover move by Halliburton on Baker Hughes, a deal directly linked to falling revenue for the oil industry’s service providers.

For followers of the energy business these are truly remarkable times, especially as it was only a few years ago that the debate was dominated by concern about the arrival of ‘Peak Oil’ with its forecast of a fall in the supply of liquid fuels and soaring prices.

What’s happened is fairly well known. Global economic growth slowed just as the US regained its status as one of the world’s biggest producers of oil, and gas became the “go to” fuel favoured by governments, which has triggered a worldwide surge in gas projects and a boom in LNG trading.

The question that is keeping a lot of people awake in countries which depend on oil and gas sales to fund their budgets is a complex one because if there are to be Glencore-style cuts to oil production who will take the lead?

A few years ago, in the era of Peak Oil, it was the job of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to adjust the flowrates of liquid fuels into the markets, either by cutting when the price fell, or boosting output when the price rose too high and started to effect economic growth.

Today OPEC is a pale imitation of its original self, thanks to rising output by countries that are not members of the oil club, new sources of supply such as North American unconventional petroleum, and the rise of global gas trading.

Within the ranks of OPEC there are countries that could send an oil price signal similar to the one sent by Glencore in the coal industry. Saudi Arabia, for example, could limit exports for a few weeks, and while that might not drain the world’s lake of surplus oil it would send a powerful signal.

The next few weeks are critical for the oil price, OPEC and other countries heavily dependent on the export of oil and gas.

Agreement on a solution is likely to be devilishly tricky because Saudi Arabia might chose to take on a Glencore-like leadership role though it, like other OPEC members, has grown to be enormously dependent on high rates of production and a high price to balance its budget.

And that’s where the oil glut and falling price could trigger dramatic geopolitical events.

Venezuela, for example, is close to economic collapse, having made a series of monumentally foolish decisions over the past 20 years that have inhibited oil and gas production despite the government needing revenue from the industry to pay for its social welfare policies.

Russia is another big oil producer sliding towards a crisis as political decisions and meddling in the affairs of neighbouring countries has seen its critically important petroleum industry whacked with punitive sanctions that are adding insult to the injury of lower oil prices.

Right now there is a balancing act underway in the oil world with countries that need oil revenue holding their breath and hoping that something changes, or that a Glencore-like circuit breaker can be manufactured.

Within OPEC there is a crisis brewing too, because most of its members are facing a politically destabilising budget crisis over the next 6-12 months, and while they all know that a production cut now would help boost the oil price no-one dares make the first move.

Whether a “catastrophic” plunge in the oil price is just around the corner, as Russia’s president Vladimir Putin warned at the G20 summit in Brisbane, remains to be seen, but it is a possibility without someone first cutting production.

However, even if a production cut is achieved tomorrow, the tougher questions are:

• Who’s next on the takeover block, because the Halliburton move on Baker Hughes will not be the last in the merger activity triggered by falling revenues in the corporate world.