In a detailed comment piece last week, GCA executive director Mike Cline outlined that there were two camps of thought with one expecting a rapid recovery in the industry as seen with the bounce back from the global financial crisis while the other believed the oil market was undergoing fundamental or revolutionary change.
Cline was part of the latter group, and said the similarities between 2014/15 and the events of 1985/86 were striking.
Among these he said that instead of rising North Sea production the industry is seeing the dramatic emergence of North American unconventional production.
As part of the revolutionary change school, he noted that low oil prices will not stifle innovation but encourage it.
“Costs will be pushed down and productivity increased as producers find a way to succeed in the low price environment,” he said.
The GCA executive also looked at myriad of other factors, such as OPEC strategy and geopolitics, before committing to the view that this downturn might last years.
“Predicting oil prices is a hopeless endeavour at the best of times, and now, with so many powerful forces pulling in different directions, it is particularly difficult,” Cline said.
“However, experience suggests that when prices are driven down by over-supply in a fractured, complex geo-political environment, a sustained recovery may take years, not months to materialise.”
He also said this period provided opportunities on the fronts of “getting more out” of existing assets, rebalancing portfolios and evolving government policies to encourage more petroleum investment and collaborative behaviour.
