With the world gearing up for the latest in series of make-or-break global climate change summits in Paris, Greenpeace has released a report it says can help speed global economies to become 100% renewable over the next 35 years, ending CO2 emissions, phasing out nuclear energy, and making redundant new oil exploration in the arctic and deep sea waters such as off the coast of Brazil.
"Every dollar invested in new fossil fuel projects is high risk capital which might end up as stranded investment," the report's lead author, Dr Sven Teske, said.
Global economies are hoping to restrict an average temperature rise to less than 2C.
“According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, humankind cannot emit more than 1000 gigatonnes of CO2 from now, if we are to stay within this limit,” Greenpeace warned.
At the current and projected rate of consumption, this entire carbon budget will be used by 2040.”
The group’s just released Energy [R]evolution report says there will be more jobs in the energy sector of tomorrow, but only if there is the political will to drive dynamic change in energy supply markets.
Greenpeace has been publishing its Energy [R]evolution scenarios since 2005, more recently in collaboration with the scientific community, in particular the German Aerospace Centre.
“While our predictions on the potential and market growth of renewable energy may once have seemed fanciful or unrealistic, they have proved to be accurate,” the group claimed.
US-based Meister Consultants Group concluded earlier this year that "the world's biggest energy agencies, financial institutions and fossil fuel companies for the most part seriously under-estimated just how fast the clean power sector could and would grow" with Greenpeace’s past forecasts more accurate than those from the International Energy Agency, Goldman Sachs and the US Department of Energy.
MCG said that to make a switch to 100% renewables by 2050 would cost an extra $US1 trillion ($A1.4 trillion) per annum, almost double the level earmarked by governments and businesses – about $940 billion per annum.
About $64.6 trillion needs to be invested by 2050, or $1.6 trillion per year, to retire and replace out-of-date plants.
“This includes high levels of investment for additional power plants for the production of synthetic fuels,” Greenpeace’s scenario predicts.
“About 95% of total investment in the power sector must shift towards renewables and cogeneration.
“By 2030 the only investment in fossil fuels is in gas power plants, which are switched from natural gas to renewable hydrogen between 2035 and 2050.”
The extra funding would be needed to build enough green energy generators to replace existing power stations fuelled by coal, oil and gas, Greenpeace said.
Wind turbines, for example, run on a free, if intermittent energy source, while a power station has to be constantly refuelled with coal or gas.
Greenpeace calculates the fuel savings to be $US1.07 trillion per annum, helping substantially offset the costs of the technological changeover.
While in the short-term electricity costs would rise slightly, by about US2c per kilowatt hour, ultimately they would drop as technology and availability improves.
The report highlighted that as many as 9.7 million people could have jobs in the solar power industry by 2030 -- more than 10 times as many as today and equivalent to the current number of jobs in the coal sector.
Wind industry jobs could increase tenfold to nearly 8 million.
“There are no major economic or technical barriers to moving towards 100% renewable energy by 2050,” Greenpeace said.