The analysis comes as Stanford University students last week called for full divestment from fossil fuel companies, as activists in the US use a similar strategy.
“Divestment from fossil fuel companies, like divestment from tobacco and South Africa, helps stigmatize companies whose business models are incompatible with any sensible response to climate change,” Columbia University’s Todd Gitlin said.
The IEEFA says global thermal coal consumption will most likely fall by an additional 2% to 4% this year after peaking in 2013 – a call which jumps the gun on Goldman Sachs’ forecast, which says coal consumption would peak by 2020.
Whether IEEFA’s call turns out to be accurate will remain to be seen for some time, but for now IEEFA believes the headline numbers in its analysis are “striking”
“Beyond China’s 5.7% year on year decline to date in 2015, US domestic coal consumption is down 11%, Germany is down 3%, the UK is down 16%, Japan is down 3%, Canada is down 5%, and Turkey is down 13% year over year,” the IEEFA said.
“With Russia’s economy in recession, we wouldn’t expect consumption growth [in] coal there. Korea is flat, Indonesia is down 2% and Mexico is down 1%.
“Against this, only two major coal-consuming economies are reporting positive growth in 2015. Indian coal consumption is up 3-6% year on year, while Australian coal consumption is up marginally, following the Abbott government’s repeal of Australia’s carbon price, which had previously caused Australian coal consumption to decline.”
The IEEFA believes there are multiple factors causing this rapid shift in the fortunes of coal.
“Critically, for the prediction that the peak has passed, the key factors are long-term structural trends,” the group said.
“One common factor is competition for electricity generation from zero-emissions wind and solar photovoltaics and (especially in the US) from lower-emissions gas.
“Another is the increased regulation of coal, as regulators impose stricter standards on emissions of carbon dioxide and local pollutants, requiring companies increasingly to internalise the environmental and social costs of their activities.”
The IEEFA added that local pollution, health and climate concerns were also stoking grassroots opposition to projects across the globe and across all parts of the coal supply chain.
“A rapidly growing financial divestment movement is having a delegitimizing effect, placing coal in the same category as tobacco, asbestos and other toxic products, and so paving the way politically for increased regulation,” the IEFFA said.
These and other factors have different weights across local contexts. Consider the variations among the three largest coal consumers, China, the US and India, that are collectively responsible for more than 70% of global coal consumption.
