Adani proposes—via its Carmichael plan—to bring low-energy, high-ash coal into India at double the cost of the coal supplied by Coal India Ltd. But even at current depressed coal prices, Adani’s idea would be unworkable, because it presents a more expensive alternative than domestic solar energy in India, IEEFA said.
“It’s hardly surprising, then, that on the same day Queensland Mining Minister Anthony Lynham awarded the Carmichael project a lease, Adani Enterprises Pty Ltd announced it was deferring the project another year,” it said.
“India—a country that has historically been handicapped by massive coal shortages and hence endemic, near-daily electricity brownouts—logged a record high 84 million tonnes (Mt) of coal stockpiles in March of this year, driven by record high domestic coal production from Coal India Ltd in 2015-16.
“What that means is that the Indian economy now has the electricity supply capacity and fuel supplies in place to allow Prime Minister Narendra Modi to deliver on his target for 7-8 percent annual economic growth.”
The 16% year-over-year increase in electricity demand announced for March is in itself a record high rate of growth, following on from 9.2% year-over-year growth in February 2016.
This strongly supports Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s assertion that India is delivering a much-needed step change in economic activity, particularly at a time in which Chinese economic growth is slowing, according to IEEFA.
“This 15% decline is a serious economic achievement in an additional context, as Coal Secretary Anil Swarup has highlighted, for its $US4.2 billion annual savings to India’s current account deficit,” IEEFA said.
