The company outlook was presented by Arch president and chief executive John Eaves yesterday at the Barclays Capital energy and power conference in New York.
In the report, Arch outlined a “compelling long-term opportunity” for global metallurgical and thermal coal markets, increased seaborne demand and US port expansion.
Arch projects US port coal capacity to more than double to 270 million tons in the next five years, with Pacific and Atlantic coast developments tipped to achieve 50Mt and 100Mt of capacity respectively.
Future growth in European demand was cited as the driver of an increase in Atlantic Basin coal exports to 570Mt by 2020.
Arch said lower capital requirements among established US producers would increase the competitiveness of domestic coal overseas and noted a drastic increase in the capital price-per-ton of Australia’s new coal capacity.
Meanwhile, a 50% increase in world steel consumption is expected to drive Chinese and Indian metallurgical imports to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030.
Arch optimism in the face of a growing trend of coal-fired plant closures came from a long-term perspective based on the demands of an increasing population base and a possible return to form for the country's industrial sector.
The miner said growth in domestic coal consumption could offset the impact of coal plant retirements because a higher population would require more electric power and a potential “manufacturing renaissance” could spark increased industrial demand.
