This year’s conference will take place on November 29-30 and will be moved south to Tampa. Organiser McCloskey hopes to break the 2005 attendance record this year with more than 300 delegates.
On the agenda will be the predictions for coal imports for the remainder of the year.
“A combination of rainy weather in May and work stoppages in both Venezuela and Colombia reduced output and have yet to factor into the coal import trend for this year, but the underlying trend is hard to miss,” organisers said.
“In commodity markets, NYMEX over-the-counter coal prices have declined 13 percent, while Henry Hub natural gas prices have declined by 47 percent. If this sounds eerily familiar to 2002, it is, but with a dramatic difference.
“In 2002, buyers exacted their revenge on sellers for price spikes in 2001 and reverted to a framework of a short-term buying focus. What followed was a series of coal company bankruptcies, a global upturn in commodity demand and dramatically higher prices that took no prisoners.
“Those that failed to diversify supply and transport options in 2002 were severely punished by the pricing and transport upheaval in 2004 and 2005.”
McCloskey said those drastic events were unlikely to occur again today as the US is much further ahead than five years ago with its port infrastructure; longer-term contracts for imports are in place, and there are a greater number of buyers and sellers of imported coal in the market.
“And crucially, the long nascent inland rail movement of imported coal is beginning to flourish. All of which will continue the trend toward increases in the long run, with near-term market adjustments reflecting changing dynamics.”
