According to the Energy Information Administration, China accounts for 47% of global coal consumption but Greenpeace forecasts a decrease due to government policies aimed at reducing pollution, improved access to China’s own coal, slowing economic growth and increased use of renewable energy.
"Assuming Chinese coal demand continues to weaken and that it sticks to its policies to curb coal use and increase renewable investment, the Chinese market for US coal exports may dry up before major new US coal shipments ever reach its ports," the Greenpeace report said.
“The US coal industry, as well as some policymakers and investors, are making a massive bet based on a flawed set of beliefs about Chinese coal demand.
“Those beliefs, stoked by an industry which desperately wants them to be true, do not reflect the reality of China’s energy economy.”
It comes as bad news for American exporters which have been looking towards growing foreign demand as domestic demand slows down.
“Many of the same factors that are causing coal to be phased out of the US market — sluggish economic growth, a rapidly developing renewable energy sector, government policies and social opposition to coal — are conspiring to make the Chinese market for US coal exports economically unviable as well,” Greenpeace China energy analyst and author of the report Lifeng Fang said in a statement.
The report is based on a study released this month by research firm IHS Cera that predicts coal demand in China will peak around 2025 at about 5.1 billion metric tons, up from 3.7Bt in 2011.
“Many companies that have targeted China as their strategic supply region in the long term may need to rethink that strategy,” Beijing-based IHS Cera associate director Xiaomin Liu said in a statement.
“Some international suppliers will be able to compete effectively but others will struggle to find a competitive edge as China’s market becomes ever more liquid.”
The Greenpeace report supported this assertion, stating that although China burned massive quantities of coal it was 95% self-dependent for its current use of coal.
Furthermore, any increases in domestic coal production or transportation infrastructure could quickly reduce China's demand for imports.
China’s total domestic coal stock reached 373 million tons by the end of September 2012, a 37% increase on the year before.
"The only scenario in which it would need to increase its imports to a degree that makes US coal exports viable is if its coal demand continues to increase at the eye-popping growth rates experienced over the past decade," the report stated.