MARKETS

The supercycle is not dead

THE commodities supercycle was "not dead, but just resting," according to Vaughan Wickins of Afri...

Staff Reporter
The supercycle is not dead

Stating that the current supercycle started in 2000, Wickins said during a typical 20-30 year cycle it was “perfectly normal to see consolidation and pull backs within an upward trend.

“The trend of rising demand meeting inelastic demand is real,” he said.

“I would maintain that just because you can’t see it [the supercycle effects] in front of your face every day, it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.”

Wickins backed this up with the opinion that emerging market populations would keep growing and commodity demand would be underpinned over the next 40 years by increased urbanisation.

“Emerging markets are set to grow at 4%-5% a year – this is healthy growth,” he said.

Wickens added that Africa was set, at current growth rates, to overtake China in terms of population by 2030.

And this expanding population wants to live in cities. By 2050, 70% of the world would be urbanised, he said, up from a rate of 53% in 2013, 47% in 2000 and 30% in 1950.

“Urbanisation is a growth driver. It is associated with high income and productivity levels.”

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