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Ebola and BHP's spin-off cure

THE Ebola virus will be high on the agenda this week at an African-focused conference in Perth but it is another disease that local miners are urgently seeking a remedy for. The <i>Metal Detective</i> wonders if BHP's NewCo spin-off could be just what the doctor ordered. <b><i>The Metal Detective</i>, by Stephen Bell</b>

Staff Reporter
Ebola and BHP's spin-off cure

With the latest Ebola outbreak causing havoc in parts of West Africa – a favoured haunt of Aussie gold and iron ore hopefuls – there will be plenty of interest in the address by UK infectious disease expert Dr David Heymann at the Africa Down Under conference.

Heymann has lobbied for heightened government responses to the outbreak and is among Ebola specialists who have called for experimental treatments – currently being trialled in the US – to be offered to patients.

Ebola, also known as haemorrhagic fever, is a serious health crisis and the latest headache for local companies working in Africa, on top of low commodity prices and tight funding conditions.

But, just as hopes are high for a cure soon for the deadly virus, deflated Aussie rock kickers bleeding money are becoming more hopeful of salvation sooner rather than later.

Buoyed by a spate of junior-midcap market raisings – one broker calculates there has been $1 billion raised in Australian resources since January – the true believers foresee a cure for investor’s apathy from 2015 onwards.

Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but there is one event certain to put mining and Africa right under the noses of nervous investors next year – the “NewCo” spin-off unveiled by BHP Billiton at its recent annual result.

MD has previously described the strategy as BHP putting out the ex-Billiton “trash”, effectively reversing the great 2001 mega-merger and its big-is-better logic.

But it could just as easily be viewed as BHP playing its get-out-of-Africa card, given that the new company will be heavily weighted to that continent, with all of its political, infrastructure and medical short-comings.

NewCo’s revenue will be roughly split between southern Africa and Australia, with Colombia (Cerro Matoso nickel) and Brazil (Alumar) tacked onto the side of the beast.

Perth will house the company’s headquarters, though a regional head office in Johannesburg will manage the African operations and a global “shared services” centre; while there will be a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

The assets inside NewCo may be undesirable for the likes of BHP, but that doesn’t mean they’re insignificant in their individual markets, according to Macquarie Research.

  • Aluminium: 12th biggest global producer, with Hillside and Mozal “first quartile” operations on the cost curve;
  • Alumina: 7th biggest producer, with Worsley and Alumar 1st and 2nd quartile respectively;
  • Lead-zinc-silver: Cannington, in Queensland, is the world’s second biggest silver and lead producer at roughly 7% of global output;
  • Nickel: Cerro Matoso is 2nd quartile but considered the world’s lowest cost ferronickel producer;
  • Metallurgical coal: relatively small and NewCo sits outside the top 10 seaborne suppliers
  • Thermal coal: Mostly domestic South African-focused.
  • Manganese: Dominant player via GEMCO in Australia and Hotazel in South Africa, potentially up to 50% of the high-grade sector.

It is the latter asset that is sure to revive interest in manganese, an underrated and under-analysed steel-making commodity, along with companies that chase it.

The NewCo listing will “likely bring the manganese market back into the focus of investors, particularly should Macquarie’s forecast 35% rise in prices to 2019 on the back of depletion of Chinese domestic reserves prove true”, the broker said.

By the time NewCo lists next year, it may be manganese – rather than nickel or graphite – that juniors are flocking to in the hope of making hay from BHP’s “trash”

On that point, it’s easy to denigrate the new company’s repackaged assets but we shouldn’t forget that most mines pale in comparison to WA Iron Ore, Escondida copper or Queensland Coal.

And let’s face it: a “new” $20 billion miner listed on the ASX is bound to generate interest in the broader sector, no matter what your view of the assets is.

At that level NewCo would be nearly twice as big as Fortescue Metals Group, making it a giant on the local bourse by any standards.

Nevertheless, it will be fascinating to watch how much lipstick and makeup CEO Graham Kerr decides to apply to the old girl to tart her up for listing.

With manganese and silver/lead NewCo’s only world leaders in terms of both production and costs, it’s a fair bet that they will be promoted very hard.

Whether NewCo it amounts to a cure for sector-wide apathy, however, remains to be seen.

That may depend on a partial recovery, at least, in iron ore prices.

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