In its Integrated Resources Plan for 2010 to 2030, South Africa has stated that its main aim is to reduce South Africa’s reliance on coal in electricity generation to below 50% by 2030.
And somewhat ironically, nuclear power, as a no-emissions energy source, looks like being South Africa’s saviour to meet its renewable energy target, presenting something of a conundrum for Greens, who not so long ago preferred gas to nuclear, and now want renewables rather than fossil fuels.
New analysis from African-focused consultancy Eunomix suggests that the country has myriad issues standing in the way of it solving its well-known energy dilemma. Gas, of course, is a big part of this mix.
Both this year’s state of the nation address and budget speech highlighted that South Africa’s biggest single renewable energy project goal is the development of new nuclear power plants, of which the government is targeting an additional 9600 Megawatts of nuclear energy capacity.
Reducing South Africa’s coal use will be formidable, considering 94% of South Africa’s electricity generation mix came from coal-fired power stations last year. The remainder came from gas power plants, the diesel-fired open-cycle gas turbines which are very expensive to run and have been used extensively during power shortages, and nuclear from Koeberg near Cape Town.
Eunomix CEO Claude Baissac said the inefficiencies of Eskom, government interference, and the huge financial resources needed to fund its current and future energy projects stand in the way of growing South Africa’s energy capacity, especially in increasing its percentage of nuclear energy.
He believes South Africa’s energy crisis has been caused by poor planning and the inefficiency of the government and its state owned enterprise, Eskom; yet plans are underway to build on South Africa’s power capacity to match current and future demand.
“One of the major current issues is that South Africa commissioned two huge new coal-fired power plants, namely Medupi and Kusile, with a third in the offing, Coal 3,” Baissac said.
“At full capacity, these three power plants will add over 10,000MW of additional coal-fired power to the grid, therefore diluting some of the gains made in increasing the percentage of non-coal power projects in South Africa.”
Potentially the greatest source of future energy supply to reduce its reliance on coal could come in the form of additional renewable energy sourced locally or regionally, gas imports from offshore Namibia and from Mozambique, a country which holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves and coal-bed methane.
And while the country’s shale gas could be the dark horse, details of a shale gas program are yet to be finalised.
Partly privatising Eskom has already been suggested by some parts of South Africa’s cabinet to solve the company’s efficiency issues, and Baissac warned that this could be a more pressing concern for the South African government than restructuring the company.
He also suggested Eskom could allow more independent power producers to increase their role in supplying power to areas that are experiencing particular shortages or are energy-intensive users.
Baissac will join other leading experts in the mining and resources sectors at the Joburg Indaba in Johannesburg from October 8 to 9 to explore other opportunities to increase and secure renewable energy production in South Africa.
