The depressed oil price environment and actions from major banks will boost global real GDP growth from 2.7% in 2014 to 3.0% in 2015 and 3.4% in 2016, IHS said.

“While the plunge in oil prices (down 59% from their June 2014 peak) and other commodity prices is rattling financial markets and inflicting pain on some countries (Iran, Russia and Venezuela), the net impact on global growth will be positive,” IHS said.

“As a point of reference, the 67% drop in oil prices in 1985 and 1986 was followed by a global boom.

“Three decades later, the global environment is different, and a boom may not be in the offing, but the big drop in oil prices will boost growth.”

Growth will remain solid in the US, whose economy should be able to grow by 3% this year “without too much trouble”, IHS said, with exports only 13% of GDP compared with 68% for consumer spending, which is getting a big boost.

“Furthermore, oil sector investment, expected to drop around 20% in 2015, is only 2% of GDP. Thus, strong domestic demand growth will – as it has in the past – provide a strong foundation and buffer for the US economy,” IHS said.

As for Europe, IHS believes the beneficial impact of very low oil prices, a weaker euro exchange rate and increasingly accommodative monetary policy will help the economy to accelerate very gradually this year and next.

The group said that while a Greek exit was a “low-probability scenario”, it would not derail the Eurozone recovery anyway.

“If such an exit were to happen, the contagion effect for the rest of the Eurozone would likely be small; while the Eurozone clearly still has serious problems,” IHS said.

China’s growth, meanwhile, is set to decelerate, but IHS warned that more stimulus would be forthcoming if it gets too low, forecasting the Asian giant’s economy to decelerate this year in response to headwinds from a debt bubble, excess industrial capacity and unstable external demand.

“As a result, real GDP growth is projected to slow from 7.4% in 2014 to 6.5% this year. Anything lower would likely trigger additional monetary and fiscal stimulus,” IHS said.

Further east, IHS expects the Russian economy to contract 4% this year amidst the “perfect storm” of falling oil prices, economic and financial sanctions and capital flight.

Meanwhile, the moribund state of the Brazilian economy is likely to continue. On the other hand, growth prospects in emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Kenya, Morocco, and Poland look bright. India, in particular, looks very promising, with growth rates that could exceed China’s.

Bottom line: the global “growth rotation” continues—and may even be accelerating. The falling prices of oil and other commodities and the divergent paths of central banks mean the developed economies (especially the US) are taking a stronger lead.