His old mantra of “education, education, education” has now been replaced by one of governance as he takes Blair Force One around Africa in his advisory role.
“If you look around the world today and you look at the countries that do succeed and don’t succeed, the difference is in governance – quality of governance,” he said in a two-part session that began with a speech and ended with questions and answers with two of the hosts.
Rwanda, Ethiopia and Mozambique were the three countries he singled out as the shining lights for improved governance. But it had been on the other side of the continent in ebola-stricken west Africa where he’d found the most hope for African governance in general and its mining prospects as an extension of that.
Blair has been one of the few prominent public figures to visit Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone since the outbreak of the ebola pandemic last year, and he said he had witnessed three things that gave him cause for hope.
“I have seen those governments act effectively to deal with disease … and I have said to these governments, take this lesson and apply it in normal times, or at least apply it to your healthcare system, because you have discovered things about your healthcare system that you didn’t know and that are of huge importance.
“The second thing is, look at what you can do when you act together. If you take the Mano River countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), there’s a classic amount they can do on infrastructure – together … investing – together. They should utilise those opportunities.
“And thirdly, the more support that is given to those countries in the post-ebola era … use it wisely and sensibly. Learn the lessons from this, apply them, but also take steps that should have been taken a long time ago and you can now see very visibly have to be taken to get your country on its feet again.
“There’s a lot of talk of trade barriers between Africa and Europe, but some of the biggest trade barriers in Africa are between African countries. Some of the areas where you lose enormous amounts of efficiency are in costs and customs duties and informal trade. You can do a massive amount to improve the quality and health of those countries by dealing with some of those barriers.”
Blair has spent a particularly large amount of time in Guinea where he has advised president Alpha Conde.
He was asked for his views on the Conde government’s overturning of contracts signed under the previous government, although Simandou – where the government has stripped Vale and BSG Resources of their rights to half the iron ore project over alleged corruption – was not mentioned specifically.
“Here’s the problem for government. Some of those contracts are entered into, and then there’s a question mark over those contracts. The governments are left with a difficult dilemma. Do you reopen the contract and potentially scare off investors? Or do you leave the contract in place and potentially have a bad deal for the country?” Blair said.
“I say to governments two things. The first is, where you genuinely think there’s a case of corruption, then that’s a case to take action on. But be very careful that you don’t create a sense where you’re reopening a thing the previous government has signed.
“Secondly, this is a very difficult thing for governments. The problem with extractive industries – you can see this with the fluctuations in commodity prices – is you can enter into a deal that looks a good deal in year X, but in year X plus 10 may look like a bad deal.
“And then of course governments get criticised because they enter into a bad deal. What I say to governments is just be very careful because what you may gain by reopening things, you may lose with the overall credibility in the predictability of doing business in your country.”
Blair has not lost his touch since his decade at 10 Downing Street ended in 2007, and he used an anecdote from his first day as prime minister to demonstrate the importance of building strong partnerships between mining companies and African governments.
“I came in the front door and shook hands with the staff and some of them were weeping. By the time I got to the end of the line I was feeling guilty about the whole thing – I had come in and upset a lot of people,” he recalled after reminding the audience that his Labour Party had just defeated the Conservatives for the first time in 18 years.
“Then I went into the cabinet room and there sitting at the table was just one person – the highest civil servant in the British system. He motioned for me to sit down, and in that very British way he said, ‘well done, now what?’
“The ‘now what’ is what’s difficult about government. You can make office as a great communicator, but once you’re in office you’re actually chief executive. You’ve got to implement, and saying is a lot easier than doing. And so the biggest challenge for governments today is how do you prioritise, get the right policies in place – and how do you implement them? How do you get things done?”
Blair said the focus of his African Governance Initiative was precisely that – to advise African governments on how to prioritise.
“Prioritisation sounds very easy, but actually it isn’t – it’s hard. And when your country has got multiple challenges, everything’s a priority,” he said, emphasising that companies must understand the importance for African governments to achieve the best possible deal for their country.
“If the relationship between investors and countries today is one that’s more a partnership, it’s important that government listens to business and business listens to government. And it’s important that together they try and construct the right environment into which people will come and invest in the country.
“The great thing about today is there are large amounts of capital looking for opportunities to invest and technology is also mobile. If you look around the world today, even if you look inside Africa itself, the examples of what works and what doesn’t are very clear.
“We actually know what works and what doesn’t. The tough thing is doing it. The tough thing is overcoming the legacies of poor systems, the lack of transparency, of an inability to function. The real challenge is to put in place systems of government that are not just honest, that are also efficacious.
“Africa as a continent is going to change enormously in this next decade. I think whatever the problems, the challenges – whether it’s ebola in west Africa, extremism in different parts of sub-Saharan Africa – and even though you can look and point to various countries and say, well, the challenges are very manifest, I think you can take the continent as a whole and you compare where it is today to where it was 20 years ago, and the progress has been enormous.
“And for those of you who know that investment is a long-term bet and not a short-term bet and despite the fluctuations in commodity prices and the recent difficulties in the commodities market – nonetheless I think Africa is a great place to come to and a great place to invest in in the future.
“I have never regretted the interest that I have taken in Africa and through the work I do now I get a chance to see countries get on their feet and slowly but surely move forward.
“This is a wonderful thing to see in action. And for all of you who are people invested in Africa … I know sometimes you will face challenges that seem very difficult to overcome, but personally I think you’ve made the right bet.”