Spot coal with an energy value of 5500 kilocalories per kilogram at the port of Qinhuangdao, China’s benchmark grade, fell for a fourth week through March 22 to an average of 465 yuan ($75) a metric ton, according to data from the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association in Beijing. That’s down almost 9% from the start of the year and the lowest since August 2007.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis disputed claims that coal is only in a cyclical downturn.
China’s 2.9% reduction in coal consumption in 2014 – the first drop in over a decade, despite total electricity production increasing 3.8% and the Chinese economy expanding at a 7.4% annual growth rate – is not just a cyclical dip, it said.
A structural slowdown that began last year, according to the IEEFA.
China’s giant Shenhua coal company has reported that its average coal price received in 2014 dropped almost 10% year-over-year, with total coal volumes (production and traded volumes combined) falling 12.4%, in a decline that accelerated rapidly in the fourth quarter.
China has reduced imports through a tariff system and already urged its 14 largest producers to cut output by 10% as miners became unprofitable.
“The support policies introduced by the government last year worked to the opposite – smaller miners managed to survive and intensify the supply glut because output from big domestic producers and from overseas were reduced,” ICIS China Deng Shun analyst told Bloomberg. “I expect further price declines will be limited as the government may well step in again to ensure social stability.”
Coal demand from utilities is weak as the fuel is being replaced by alternative sources such as hydropower amid efforts to fight pollution, according to Deng. The government is seeking to reduce coal’s share in its energy consumption to less than 62% by 2020 from last year’s 64%.
Equity analysts have taken note, cutting their consensus forecasts for the five top publicly listed Chinese coal company earnings in 2015 by 45% on average.
Shenhua’s condition is relatively strong within that group, with 2015 earnings expectations down 20%, while rivals China Coal and Shaanxi Coal are down more than 60% and 55%, respectively.
