Time will test how sound that advice is, but there are a number of reasons why Glencore is floating now and even more reasons why it is a business totally unsuited for public ownership.
None of this is a criticism of Glencore as it now stands. It is an astonishingly successful business which has played the oil, metal and agricultural commodity markets as well as a Yehudi Menuhin on his Stradivarius violin.
And if you think comparing the late, great Yehudi with a bunch of commodity traders staring at computer screens is unusual, then you’re wrong about that too.
Commodity trading, Glencore-style, is as intensely personal as playing a violin. It is all about years of practice, knowing precisely when to buy and sell, and effectively doing it on your own without having to ask for the approval of a management committee which meets once a week.
In the world of Glencore, there are specialist traders who know more about the world’s commodity markets than anyone else.
Zinc traders know exactly the rate of global zinc production, where it’s going, who’s buying and at what price. It’s the same with the many types of oil traded around the world, nickel, iron ore and exotic metals such as tin and vanadium.
The boys and girls at Glencore are the best and they came to be the best because they are hungry and competitive, even among themselves. It has been reported that some Glencore traders get a bigger buzz out of beating a colleague in a deal than beating an outsider.
That’s the dog-eat-dog spirit that has made Glencore what it is today, an extension of the profit-at-all-cost commodity business founded by Marc Rich, a man of some infamy thanks to his oil-trading escapades with Iran.
Back in the 1970s Rich made himself rich by disposing of the oil produced by embargo-isolated Iran, even while that country was descending into a form of religious tyranny. Charged by the US government for his troubles, Rich was only free to travel to the US from his bolt-hole in Switzerland after a last-minute pardon by US president Bill Clinton.
Rich’s dealing is more than an interesting footnote of history. It is an insight into what a commodity trader does to make a buck and how far a trader must go.
Hold that piece of history, and the vision of trader doing whatever it takes to score a deal, and look at the timing of Glencore’s float – it is at the peak of the market, and if there’s one thing a Glencore trader knows it is how to always buy low and sell high.
So, coming to you via your friendly investment bank or stockbroking firm is a chance to buy into a business run by a syndicate of sole traders who have demonstrated, over the past 50 years, a brilliant ability to quit assets at the best possible price.
And you actually want to buy some of that?
But wait, there’s more. Those same sole traders who might consider selling their granny for $10 if that was required to land a deal, are about to become hugely, immensely rich.
With a current share register of less than 500 senior staff, the $60 billion float will enable the foundation shareholders to trouser tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars each.
That’s the next question about Glencore. If it has been so successful because of its lean and hungry traders fighting over the last dollar in a deal because it means profit for them, why would they go on fighting for you when they’ve made their fortune?
That is not a question for a rocket scientist. Nor is the question about selling at the peak of a boom. Nor is the question about the pedigree of the Glencore beast – a pedigree and methods of doing business which are fine when kept private, but will not tolerate the spotlight of public ownership, grizzling shareholders, an intrusive media and enhanced government oversight.
Best let the Glencore crew get their big pay day from someone else and let their share offer whiz through to the keeper.
Disclaimer: Neither International Longwall News nor the writer imply any investment recommendation regarding any stock mentioned and comments herein are speculative in nature. Investors should consult their professional financial advisers.
First published on Monday in MiningNews.net.