New Hope sold its New Saraji project to BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance for $2.45 billion in July 2008 and still cleared more than $1 billion after tax and $648 million of associated dividends.

Signalling its first corporate move on a coal producer since this time, New Hope is offering 2.7 of its shares for every fully paid ordinary Macarthur share through a scheme of arrangement, valuing Macarthur at $14.58 a share.

Similar to Peabody’s recently revised $14 per share takeover offer for Macarthur, New Hope’s proposal requires that Macarthur’s takeover offer for Gloucester Coal does not go ahead.

The Macarthur board has responded by saying it is assessing the merits of the New Hope offer but has advised its shareholders to take no action at this stage.

“The directors are meeting today to consider New Hope’s proposal and whether there is any basis for postponing the EGM scheduled for 11.00am on Monday April 12, 2010,” Macarthur announced.

Peabody took out full and half-page newspaper advertisements yesterday to further its campaign to delay the shareholder vote on the Gloucester takeover.

While the US-based major coal producer made an application to the Takeovers Panel yesterday, this morning the panel declined to make an interim order to postpone the vote.

Meanwhile, Xstrata is in talks with Macarthur’s steelmaking stakeholders ArcelorMittal (16.6%) and POSCO (8.3%) about a possible combined bid, according to the Australian Financial Review.

Commodities trader Noble Group is also yet to respond to New Hope’s offer but is expected to put up a fight.

Noble bought an 87.8% stake in Gloucester in a $7 per share cash takeover last year and an independent expert’s report suggested the Hong Kong-based company could acquire a 20.7-24.6% stake in Macarthur from the Gloucester Coal deal.

Macquarie Research analysts forecast Noble to eventually launch a full takeover play for Macarthur back in January.

Before the New Hope offer and the Xstrata report became more widely known, long-time Macarthur supporter and Mine Life senior resources analyst Gavin Wendt said a takeover of Macarthur was going to be difficult for corporate players.

“To get control, if they offer anything less than $20 a share, to be honest, I really can’t see it happening,” he said.

Wendt said steelmakers had started getting worried two or three years ago about where coal prices were going and therefore started developing their own mines, making acquisitions and getting stakes in existing producers to get a foothold on supply.

He views the Arcelor and POSCO stakes as being there to guarantee supply as opposed to making a profit and can see this as a stumbling block to any bid for Macarthur.

Independent Aussie coal producers – an endangered species

Wendt is not surprised with the moves on Macarthur as independent players were becoming a pretty rare species in the Australian coal space.

“You had Excel Coal disappear, you had Felix Resources disappear, I think we had Gloucester disappear because Noble is an 88 per cent shareholder,” he said.

“The remaining players were going to be subject to takeover bids so it’s no surprise.”

Wendt sees Whitehaven Coal in particular as being another takeover target.

“All these [independent Aussie coal] companies are going to be picked off – it’s just a matter of time.”

He lays some of the blame on the Foreign Investment Review Board.

While believing there might be no issue of national interest in the takeover of Australian coal companies in isolation, Wendt sees problems with the trend.

He also feels FIRB’s approval of the Felix takeover by Yanzhou Coal Mining will make it hard to knock back the next takeover put forward.

“It’s a tricky situation, I can see, for why we should be worried pretty soon the remaining independent players are going to get knocked off and we won’t have an independent coal sector in Australia.

“And probably the only listed companies here are going to be the BHPs and the Rios.”

Macarthur shares are in a trading halt but closed up 6c at $14.36 yesterday.