Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst in London for Credit Agricole, was reported on Monday coming out with a very bullish forecast on metals, especially for copper, tin and lead.
The headline on the news report was unequivocal: “Don’t sell – metals ready for another bull market”.
Everything does seem to feed into that notion. Last night we had more gains on the London Metal Exchange, with lead again the leader of the pack, gaining another 2.5% to $US2435 per tonne.
Traders are counting on the Fed to pull the trigger again on quantitative easing, and set the printing presses rolling again – hence the expectation that metals, and other hard assets, will continue to appreciate considerably in dollar if not real terms.
Great news – profits for everyone. Or everyone working above ground and well away from mining machinery, that is.
South of the equator, meanwhile, we have the circus in Chile, just as we had at Beaconsfield.
Sure, it’s a wonderful thing to see the miners coming to the surface after all this time, but, as I said, what a circus.
The news channels haven’t been able to get enough, and there are reporters standing in front of the action spinning platitudes and inanities into the camera lenses for the viewers back home.
And, of course, we’re now hearing that the guy who has both a wife and mistress (and whose existence was unknown to the wife, and the wife to the mistress until they happened to both rush to the mine after the collapse) could make millions from media deals.
But has anyone, anywhere, paused for a moment to consider how this all came about, or the fact that men every day around the world risk their lives under the ground?
When traders on Wall Street watch their screens, they never for a moment consider the mining effort that went into making available the minerals that go into that technology.
Rarely does anyone outside this industry think about the hundreds of thousands of men who every day risk their lives.
True, miners in the West are getting pretty well paid – but not as well paid as those who trade the fruit of the underground effort, and without any risk other than a coffee stain on the expensive tie.
When a greenie weeps tears of joy at the sight of another wind turbine, they never – as was pointed out here recently – consider the amount of rare earth elements that have gone into its manufacture.
Has a single one of the reporters preening in front of the television cameras in Chile reflected on the dangers of working in mines?
The point is that mine safety has improved dramatically over recent decades. In the US, for example, there are now fewer deaths in mining than in either construction or agriculture – but, of course, there are far fewer miners than construction workers.
And there are signs that – finally – China is starting to take the issue seriously.
But there are still accidents, from a single worker killed at an Australian mine from time to time to the 29 who died in April in that West Virginia coal mine explosion. In China, more than 2600 miners died last year.
The history of mining is replete with truly awful events, which you can soon find out simply by typing “world’s worst mining disasters” into the Google search. To save you the trouble, these are the worst five.
1. 1549 miners died in the Honkeiko colliery in China. The mine was in Japanese-occupied Manchuria (April 26, 1942).
2. 1100 died in a coal dust explosion at Courrieres, France (March 10, 1906).
3. 447 miners killed in Omuta coal mine, Japan (November 9, 1963).
4. 438 men and boys died in a coal mine at Senghenydd, Wales (October 14, 1943).
5. 437 died in a coal mine at Coalbrook, South Africa (January 1, 1960).
The next five are also coal mine disasters. They’re the worst places to be.
We all remember the Appin mine disaster south of Sydney. To commemorate the 30th anniversary last year, the Illawarra Mercury ran a list of all the coal miners who had died in the southern coalfields of New South Wales since 1880. The list had 550 names.
These lists include only the dead. Then there are all the injured – like this writer’s grandfather, who was badly hurt in an underground coal mine and never worked again.
The subject of “mine safety” is, no doubt, regarded as dull and unsexy in newsrooms around the world unless, of course, someone with both a wife and mistress gets trapped underground for several weeks.
So let’s celebrate for the Chilean miners who are being saved. But let us also remember all those who have died in the process of producing minerals essential to our well-being.
And let's keep mine safety in the public eye.
First published in ILN's sister publication MiningNews.net on Thursday.