Coal and iron ore are Australia’s two biggest mineral exports, so the Metal Detective was encouraged to learn of two overseas developments in recent weeks that should have positive implications for bulk commodity producers.

Both stem from anti-pollution measures that, in the case of Germany, look to have badly misfired.

Europe’s powerhouse economy is rushing to reopen some of the nation’s “dirtiest” brown coal mines that were closed down when East and West Germany reunified after the Berlin Wall came down in the late 1980s, according to Bloomberg.

"From Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic, utilities are expanding open pit mines that produce lignite," it said.

"Alarmed at power prices about to double US levels, policymakers are allowing the expansion of coal mines that were scaled back in the past two decades."

Amazingly, global demand for lignite – a soft brown coal – is forecast to rise as much as 5.4% by 2020, according to the International Energy Agency, a statistic that beggars belief given Europe’s expensive investment in greener energy sources.

Germany’s wholesale plunge back into coal is partly driven by rising power costs as Europe props up its high-cost renewable power with expensive – and unsustainable – subsidies.

And, of course, renewables are notoriously unreliable.

Newspaper Die Welt reported that Germany’s wind and solar power production effectively stopped for an entire week in early December, forcing coal, nuclear and gas power plants to generate virtually all of the electricity supply.

Germany’s problems have been exacerbated by its commitment to phase out nuclear power after Japan’s Fukushima reactor explosion in 2011.

MD can hear the voice of Paladin Energy chief John Borshoff ringing in his head: “I told you so!”

Whether the back-to-coal push will help push up rock-bottom uranium prices remains to be seen – yellowcake is a fickle market and depends more on the rate of restarts in Japan and new capacity in China.

It will also be fascinating to watch how the export coal market reacts to Europe going browner, not greener.

Coal prices have softened in the last few months on oversupply and it is cheaper for Germany to dig up old lignite mines than import thermal coal from Australia.

But if other European countries follow suit, it can only spell good news for coal exporters in the long run.

It may even bolster Griffin Coal’s unlikely plan to quadruple production at its loss-making Collie operation in Western Australia to underpin a Bunbury export operation.

India’s Lanco, which paid $750 million for the former Ric Stowe operation in 2010, is estimated to be losing $6 million a month amid ongoing difficulties in paying its workers and suppliers.

Lanco paid top dollar for the ageing operation because it figured it would easily recoup the capital from its grandiose plan to export up to 18 million tonnes per annum of coal, mostly to Indian power stations.

But the Indian conglomerate badly underestimated the cost of doing business in WA, including the time and money required to set up a major new export operation out of Bunbury.

Disgruntled employees at Griffin regard Lanco’s export plan as fanciful, as it can’t even afford to replace ageing mining equipment that is used to dig up increasingly deep resources.

Now there is speculation on Bloomberg that Lanco is looking to sell the mine to help cut debt.

With the browning of Europe, investment bankers will at least be able to spin a positive demand story for potential Griffin buyers and investors.

Meanwhile, anti-pollution moves in China are having some interesting spin-offs in iron ore.

Following dense smog that shrouded Beijing in the early months of last year, the Chinese government moved to suppress heavy industry in Hebei, the province responsible for around a quarter of China’s steel production.

However, forcing reduced pollution in one region simply led to an increase elsewhere, Macquarie reported.

This year Shanghai has taken over from Beijing as the high profile city reporting elevated pollution levels.

As a result steel mills are using more lump and pellets, rather than fines, in their blast furnaces to limit emissions, pushing premiums for the higher-grade products up sharply in the second half of 2013.

This is a reversal of trends in 2012 when cash-strapped mills sought out cheaper, lower-grade iron ore.

“We believe that increased environmental concerns and an increase of effective blast furnace capacity utilisation will mean the spreads between ore grades will stay wide over at least the first half of 2014,” Macquarie said.

As a result, there is potential for benchmark iron ores to trade above prices implied by the cost curve, suggesting “upside to both our own and consensus price forecasts”, the bank said.