MARKETS

South32 surges as analysts initiate

SHARES in newcomer South32 bounced back from a lacklustre debut yesterday as analysts formally in...

Kristie Batten
South32 surges as analysts initiate

South32 shares hit as high as $A2.29 yesterday morning after closing at $2.05 the previous day, after more positive listings in London and Johannesburg.

The company took around 50 analysts on a tour of its Australian operations last month ahead of its listing yesterday.

JP Morgan’s Lyndon Fagan this morning initiated coverage on South32 with an overweight rating and $2.95 price target.

“The investment case for S32 is attractive in our view, with un-stretched valuation metrics and low gearing,” he said.

“Further, we expect positive near-term guidance on cost out, productivity measures and strategic direction.”

RBC Capital Markets analyst Chris Drew rates South32 as an outperform with a $2.60 price target, describing the company as an attractive longer term investment proposition.

“It offers exposure to a high-quality portfolio of assets, good forecast cashflow, a strong balance sheet and significant leverage to an expected improving commodity cycle,” he said.

Macquarie analysts said South32 provided investors with a unique mix of commodities.

“Importantly S32 is the only large cap ASX resources stock that has either no material debt or exposure to iron ore,” Macquarie said.

Macquarie initiated coverage with an outperform rating and $2.40 price target.

Analysts agree South32 has limited growth options within its current portfolio and expect the company to target external opportunities.

JP Morgan and RBC suggest the company could target copper opportunities.

“Given BHP’s favourable copper views (which we assume are likely to carry over into South32) and

South32’s lack of copper exposure, we think that copper assets are a likely target,” Drew said.

Macquarie doesn’t expect any M&A from South32 in the first year of its life.

“However should Anglo American look to sell its share of the manganese assets, then this could be the most logical first step for S32, given it already operates the projects,” it said.

“We estimate the cost of consolidating the manganese assets would exceed $US1 billion.”

South32 CEO Graham Kerr told Bloomberg yesterday that the company was in a “great position” if Anglo decided to divest its 40% stake.

RBC values the balance of the Samancor manganese assets at $900 million.

In Perth yesterday, Kerr laughed off speculation that South32 was a takeover target for Mick Davis’ X2 Resources.

He said he preferred to focus on what the company could control.

“It sounds boring but it’s safety, volume, costs, financial performance,” he told reporters.

“We’ve spent a lot of time talking to investors about the value proposition. I think it’s been well-received.”

TOPICS:

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining Monthly Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining Monthly Intelligence team.

editions

ESG Mining Company Index: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The ESG Mining Company Index report provides an in-depth evaluation of ESG performance of 61 of the world's largest mining companies. Using a robust framework, it assesses each company across 9 meticulously weighted indicators within 6 essential pillars.

editions

Mining Magazine Intelligence Exploration Report 2024 (feat. Opaxe data)

A comprehensive review of exploration trends and technologies, highlighting the best intercepts and discoveries and the latest initial resource estimates.

editions

Mining Magazine Intelligence Future Fleets Report 2024

The report paints a picture of the equipment landscape and includes detailed profiles of mines that are employing these fleets

editions

Mining Magazine Intelligence Digitalisation Report 2023

An in-depth review of operations that use digitalisation technology to drive improvements across all areas of mining production