While many commentators tipped a boring budget with few surprises, the mining industry’s worst fears are being realised.
Treasury estimates have priced in $3 billion of net revenue from the RSPT for 2012-13 and another $9 billion for 2013-14.
There were few new details about the tax despite the mountain of budget papers as the government is only starting to consult with mining companies and the states.
But Swan was adamant that the 40% tax rate would not be changed in his first post-budget interview, chipping in that Australians were not getting their fair share of minerals in the ground.
Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey followed by attacking the Treasury estimates and the forecasted level of future mining investment.
“This year it is based all on the assumption that the mining boom will deliver a great windfall to the government, yet the government is introducing a $9 billion dollar a year new tax,” told the ABC.
On a brighter note, the new budget will also target spending in several areas which will aid the coal industry.
Training
To tackle the never-gone skills crisis, the Rudd government unveiled a $661 million Skills for Sustainable Growth package, aiming to provide up to 70,000 new training places and to support 22,500 new apprentices.
Of this, $300 million is to address “skill hotspots” including a $200 million Critical Skill Investment Fund to finance up to 39,000 training places through industry partnerships, with 50% of the cost of training provided to help large companies and up to 90% for small businesses.
Another $79 million will go to the existing Kickstart Apprenticeship bonus while $20 million is slated to encourage competency-based apprenticeships.
Infrastructure
With some $36 billion of previous deficit-churning expenditure already committed to infrastructure by the Rudd government, mining tax revenues are expected to fuel a new $5.6 billion Infrastructure Fund over the next decade.
Slated to become a permanent fixture, the fund will start off with $700 million provided by the RSPT in 2012-13, with resource-rich states to receive “relatively more” of the flagged but unspecified spending on roads, rail and ports.
Some $996 million over the next three years will go to the Australian Rail Track Corporation with $183.2 million to be spent in 2010-11 to help it meet ongoing expansion work of the Hunter coal lines.
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
While the deferral of the CPRS contributed to a slump in Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings, it has certainly freed up more budget finances.
While it was not often discussed, the proposed CPRS was going to cost the government more than the revenue it received from emitting industries, mainly because of the level of planned assistance for below-average income earners to cope with some of the effects, such as higher electricity bills.
The government noted that total savings from deferring the CPRS amounted to a $3 billion fiscal balance improvement over the five years from 2009-10.
The cash savings over the same period amount to $652.5 million with this sum to be spent over the next four years on the new Renewable Energy Future Fund, which does not yet have any specific commitments.
Exploration rebate
Pundits calling for a flow-through tax scheme to boost exploration are again disappointed, but the government will provide $1.8 billion over four years from 2010-11 in its resource exploration tax offset.
The rebate even extends to geothermal energy explorers and applies to exploration expenditure after July 2011.
Corporate tax rates
As flagged after the Henry Tax Review, the Rudd government will cut the company tax rate from 30% to 29% in 2013-14, and then to 28% in 2014-15 at a cost of $2.3 billion.
But given that this measure is funded by mining taxes, the effective tax rate for mining companies is still almost 60% for 2012-13.
Although the government played up Australia’s better economic position compared to other developed countries around the world, the new 2010-11 budget is forecasted to be in deficit to the tune of $40.8 billion and to increase the country’s net debt to GDP from 3.2% last year to 5.6%.