Ranking coking coal as its favourite bulk commodity, Citigroup predicts the price rise on its expectation that the supply of steelmaking raw materials will fall next year, as reported by Bloomberg.
The news service reported a current price of 1260 yuan a tonne ($US184.53/t) in Henan Province.
China International Capital Corporation has reportedly forecast a 12% gain in Chinese steel demand, driven by buoyant property and car demand.
Macquarie is forecasting next year’s premium coking coal benchmark to hit $US160/t, 24% higher than the $129 benchmark this year.
Last month the investment bank said spot prices for Australian coking coal were around $165-170/t.
Fifty-one per cent of the audience attending the coal market session of the Coaltrans conference in London in November expected the benchmark for the upcoming Japanese financial year to reach $175/t.
Macquarie puts Chinese imports of Australian coking coal at 18.73 million tonnes for the first 10 months of 2009, compared to a mere 1.17Mt in the corresponding 2008 period.
