Considered a barometer of global trade, the BDI closed at 1506 points on Friday, 34% down from a high of 2298 points last month.
The BDI has reflected the impact of the global financial crisis, having reached 11,793 points in May last year to as low as 663 points in December.
In a report questioning whether this was the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end, Macquarie commodities analysts reaffirmed their previous calls that recoveries are more likely to take place from the second half of the year.
“Although there is undoubtedly some euphoria about the actions being taken by monetary and fiscal authorities to address global problems, we think the extent of the actions reflect how bad things actually are,” Macquarie said.
“We are concerned that short-term disappointments and doubts may eventually kill this premature rally, although we hope that signs of improvement may be more solidly based during the second half of 2009,” Macquarie said.
Looking at recent purchasing manager indices (PMIs), which survey manufacturing companies, Macquarie said the data for the United States, Eurozone and Japan showed a catastrophic decline in demand.
For March the overall US, Eurozone and Japan-headlined manufacturing PMIs averaged at 34.6 points, down 31.49% from the previous year but up 1.77% from January.
While there has been recent speculation that a Chinese recovery is on the way as China’s official PMI rose to 52.4 points from 49 in February, the analysts poured cold water on the news as well as on any optimism from rallies in global equity markets and commodity prices since mid-February.
“Most of our contacts in the ‘real’ world of buying and selling commodities, facing ongoing bleak orders [“there are no orders!” in a common statement] and low levels of activity, cannot believe what is happening,” Macquarie said.
The analysts added that physical premiums for base metals are still weak and non-futures traded commodities such as thermal coal, steel, iron ore, ferrochrome and manganese ore are either still falling or not rising.
“Second-quarter orders and demand remain as weak as, if not weaker than, first-quarter levels, and non-Chinese demand is 30 to 60 per cent lower year over year for most commodities, a horrendous collapse.”
Macquarie also feared any revival in demand will be matched by an equally robust recovery in production.
“Many of the industries we follow have slashed operating rates from 95 to 100 per cent in mid-2008 to only 65 to 75 per cent – and even lower, in many cases – at the moment [the US steel industry is operating only just above 40%].
“We are also concerned that price rallies will be short-lived as supply comes flooding back into the market.”
