According to recent data, thermal coal inventories at Indian power plants are equating to about 20 days of consumption – considered the highest level since at least March 2008.
“This is up from nine days at the start of this year and just five days in mid-October last year,” Macquarie Wealth Management said.
“The implication is that domestic supply performance has improved since demand has remained strong, with coal fired power generation up 7% year to date.”
Such an increase is significant, according to the broker’s previous modelling.
“We recently wrote a note carrying out scenario tests on Indian thermal coal import demand under different Indian domestic supply assumptions, concluding that [about] 7.5% domestic supply growth would hold import requirements flat.”
Under the new Narendra Modi-led government, state-owned Coal India aims to boost production to one billion tonnes by 2020.
