Net result? A supply squeeze is replacing demand pull as the mineral-price driver, and while the switch will provide fascinating stories for the news media it will not be particularly pleasant for people working in the industry.

Evidence of the three-way crush can be found, not surprisingly, in three places. They are:

• South Africa, where workforce strife that started in one platinum mine went viral, extended across the platinum industry, moved into goldmines, and threatened to keep spreading, cutting overall output in one of the biggest mining countries;

• Mongolia, where politicians were behind a different sort of protest, which produced the same results - reduced mineral output;

• Australia, where the owners of capital went on strike over rampant cost rises and falling profits, which led to project deferrals, construction delays and, you guessed it, reduced mineral output.

If there was only one country dealing with a constriction in the supply of minerals and metals to customers in Asia it would be reasonable to dismiss what’s happening as an isolated incident.

But, it’s not one country and it’s not one commodity.

In South Africa it is gold and platinum bearing the brunt of labour unrest that has been a long time coming, and could take a long time to leave, and only then after dealing a severe blow to that country’s economy.

In Mongolia it is copper that is the focus of a dispute between the rulers of that country and the rulers of China, with the Mongolians becoming increasingly agitated about the effective “takeover” of their country by Chinese commercial interests.

In Australia it is coal, iron ore and copper which have been hardest hit by mining companies (the owners of capital) objecting to sky-high costs and increasingly heavy-handed government tax regimes, leading to project postponements.

Collectively, these supply-related events are starting to affect metal prices, aided by the recent return of speculators who are concerned about the inflationary effects of the never-ending printing of paper money in the world’s major economies.

Last week Japan joined the US and Europe in churning out extra liquidity in the name of stimulating economic growth, even if it meant triggering rampant inflation.

It is during periods of high inflation that investors turn to real assets such as property, equities (shares) and physical commodities because keeping money in the bank, or owning a promissory note or bond issued by a government, is a guaranteed way to destroy value.

While inflation sponsored by the world’s central banks, once the front-line fighters against inflation, could be the factor which kick-starts economic activity and mineral demand, it is the supply squeeze on the mineral pipeline which Dryblower finds most interesting.

The South African experience, which has already seen more than 40 people killed, is the nastiest event so far, and the one which could last the longest and do the most damage.

What’s happening in South Africa’s mining industry is the release of 18 years of frustration by black workers who had expected much more after the end of white rule during the apartheid era.

But instead of widespread benefits, a black ruling elite has simply replaced a white ruling elite and even attempts at black empowerment and higher wages for workers has simply produced a higher cost structure in the country’s all-important mining industry which is now bumping into the end of the China-demand boom.

How far will wage claims and industrial unrest go in South Africa? A very long way if this comment from a spokesman for the labour union is a guide. “It looks like this is just a contagious thing,” Lesiba Seshoka from the National Union of Mineworkers told London’s Financial Times newspaper.

The Mongolian situation has reached a flashpoint at the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine of Rio Tinto, which is unable to start commissioning because the government cannot reach an electricity purchase agreement with China.

More troubles could follow in Mongolia because of fresh demands to limit foreign investment in the mining industry, a push aimed at China but likely to rope in all foreigners.

Australia’s troubles are all about costs, but the result of what is a “capital strike” can be felt in the mothballing of BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam copper mine expansion, the shelving of coal developments, and the postponement of the next wave of iron ore expansion by Fortescue Metals.

They are all separate issues, but with a common result; supply cuts are starting to drive prices rather than demand pull.

This article first appeared in ILN's sister publication MiningNews.net.