The world’s biggest listed energy company forecasts global energy demand to soar 25% between 2014 and 2040 as the world population adds about two billion, with developing economies to deliver most of the energy demand growth, with per capita income increases of 135% in those countries.
ExxonMobil expects natural gas to meet about 40% of global energy growth needs over the forecast period as demand for the fuel soars by half.
Meanwhile nuclear and renewables including bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind and solar could account for nearly 40% of demand growth.
By 2040, ExxonMobil expects nuclear and renewable sources to constitute nearly 25% of supplies, of which nuclear alone will soak up about a third.
As with most things, China will shape industrial energy demand. China’s demand rose 2.3% a year as the Asian giant’s industry boomed from 2000-2014, during which time it accounted for more than half the global growth in demand.
However, things are changing, with ExxonMobil forecasting global demand averaging 1% a year from 2014-2040 as China “moderates”, while India takes the lead in industrial demand and the US re-emerges in this area.
China will lead the surge in gas use in industrials, with its gas use rising to 10% by 2040, by which time OECD32 will derive 75% of its electricity from gas and coal drops to 10% as the group leads the shift away from coal and oil as fuels for industry.
However, 85% of electricity demand will come from developing nations as ExxonMobil forecasts global demand to soar 65% by 2040.
ExxonMobil forecasts OECD emissions to fall by about 20% by 2040 as India surpasses China as the world’s most populous nation with 1.6 billion people, with the two Asian giants to account for nearly half of global energy demand growth.
The net imports of the Asia Pacific, already the world’s biggest oil importing region, are projected to rise by more than half by 2040 as domestic production stays steady and demand lifts.
On the upside for oil, ExxonMobil said in its Outlook for Energy report that while the industrial sector’s oil use is flat, its use as a chemical feedstock is growing.
ExxonMobil says oil will retain its status as the world’s largest energy source as it is essential as a feedstock to the petrochemical industry.
Global demand for oil and other liquids is projected to rise by about 20% from 2014 to 2040.
