Gone will be the roller-coaster that took the mining world down to near-record lows in 2008, and then back up to almost where we started by the end of 2009.

The new normal, for anyone old enough to remember, will be more like the 1970s, a decade of reduced risk taking, flat commodity prices and sluggish economic growth.

That does not mean it will lack the odd thrill, or attempts by company promoters and investment bankers to inject a little enthusiasm into the stock market – events we all love watching.

But it is a wise investor who does not expect too much from the mining industry in 2010 because while it will be a better year thanks to ongoing Chinese demand for raw materials, the rest of the world will struggle.

The burden of repaying $US2 trillion in debt incurred by government stimulus programs around the world will be the number one focus of most countries.

Even China will be forced to consider whether it can continue to stimulate its economy without creating exactly the same “economic balloon” which exploded so painfully in the US.

There is already talk of a property bubble forming in the big cities of China as home buyers rush to catch the cheap loans on offer, a phenomenon which Dryblower is watching very closely.

Closer to home there are equally interesting events to watch in 2010, such as:

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto trying to convince anti-monopoly regulators in Europe that merging their iron ore operations is not anti-competitive (ho, ho, ho!).

That revitalising failures, such as the Ravensthorpe nickel mine and the Windimurra vanadium project, will be easy.

Continued strong demand for coal despite dire predictions for the world’s climate from environmentalists.

The unleashing of Andrew Forrest who, after years of being hamstrung by ill-conceived legal action, can start dealing again.

Of those four examples chosen by Dryblower, the one which has the potential to generate the most news in 2010 is the BHP-Rio iron ore merger.

Conceived in haste, and largely to take advantage of unique political and financial factors, the concept of creating a single giant Australian iron ore business was never going to survive a return to normal business conditions.

Even if it does in name, the Europeans will permit the merger to proceed only after mines are sold off and rail and port access to rival miners is guaranteed.

History is one reason why Europe hates the BHP-Rio proposal. The core of the union which is Europe today lies in a plan to protect the iron and steel industries of the founding countries from competition and raw material suppliers forming cartels to control prices.

If the history of Europe, or its very reason for existence as an economic trade bloc, does not kill the merger outright then it might produce the outcome being sought by the Australian and WA governments – greater access to all-important infrastructure for small miners.

Which prompts Dryblower to suggest a few early investment lessons for 2010:

Lesson No. 1 – Watch those small iron ore stocks like a hawk because everyone wants them to succeed, if only to give the monster miner proposed by BHP and Rio a blood nose.

Lesson No. 2 – The revitalisation of failed projects is much harder to predict but, as a general rule, they will not work. Ravensthorpe could succeed because it has been acquired by clever people, but the previous crew were not stupid, just dealt a lousy hand of cost overruns and tricky chemistry.

The same applies to Windimurra, and the White Range and Lady Annie copper projects.

Lesson No. 3 – Get ready to ride the coal wagon thanks to the environmental movement which (a) gave coal a leg up by opposing uranium, and (b) boosted coal even further by failing to agree on anything at the Copenhagen climate change summit. Those two events left the world with a simple choice: freeze in the dark or burn coal.

Lesson No. 4 – Watch what Andrew Forrest does. He reckons he’ll spend the rest of his life building a giant train-and-port set in WA’s Pilbara region. Nonsense, that’s what accountants do. Forrest is an entrepreneur who will not be able to resist the lure of “the deal” and whether he succeeds or fails, he will attract money.

Surviving 2009 was an achievement in itself, and while 2010 will be easier there are reasons to be both optimistic and cautious, especially as more profitable industries are whacked with higher taxes to pay down government debts – and that includes mining.